What caused WWI?
As a retired engineer interested in complexity science and complex adaptove systems, the thought has occured to me (as a well-meaning amateur) that the cause of WWI could be explained in terms of a complex political system reaching a tipping-point.
This has consequences for the role of SIGINT in warfare. I have already posted an opinion on the role of SIGINT in the Battle of Tannenberg (1914), but if warfare is indeed a complex (political) system, it is possible that SIGINT's role and contribution is more subtle that I suggest.
A complex system is a large-scale collective of parts with the following properties:
Interconnectedness – dense network of internal inter-dependencies
Emergence – new behaviour of the collective that is not expressed in the parts
Adaptation – responds to environment (maybe, antifragile)
Non-linearity – small changes in some parts have disproportionate effects on others
Self-organising – spontaneous assembly and co-ordination (maybe autopoietic)
Internal feedback (positive & negative) – regulation and goal seeking (maybe, cybernetic)
Scalable structure – hierarchical organisation
Distributed functionality - decentralisation
Criticality – ‘tipping-points’, transitions between ‘states’, modalities
Dynamic – evolving through change (or actively remaining the same)
SIGINT is a power in the complex collective alongside weapons, defences, electronic countermeasures, manpower resources, manufacturing capability, etc..., and may therefore have a role in warfare as a trigger point. In other words, it is part of a much bigger system but with a potentially disproprtionate role on occasion.
A possible cause of WWI...
The exact causes of the First World War remain a subject for discussion amongst historians. The power vacuum left by the fading Ottoman Empire and the shift in influence towards the German Empire is a major background influence. However, this unpacks on a more detailed level as political, territorial and economic competition (The Ottoman economy was largely agricultural whereas the German economy was largely industrial). There was a complex web of national alliances and alignments across Europe. The peace was destabilised by militarism (the assertion of national interests through military force) and the “cult of the offensive” (the advantages of pre-emptive attack making the need to defend redundant). The influence of imperialism (the reach of power over other nations) and the growth of nationalism (an emphasis on the interests of individual nations) added to the instability. Germany invested heavily in its navy in response to the perceived dominance of the Royal Navy. A number of unresolved territorial disputes provided opportunity for tensions to grow. This set of intensive inter-relationships strongly suggests a complex political system that reached a tipping point with the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. It was not one single factor that triggered the war but a consequence of the dynamics taking place in Europe and the intensity of inter-relationships between powers. Once the July crisis was reached with the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, the powers were inevitably drawn into conflict. The war ended with a political shift away from outmoded monarchy presiding over empire towards a collective of modern democratic republics. Germany was humiliated in defeat, and this harboured national resentment that carried forward to the Second World War.